The Talent Dividend

City Dividends a recent report by Portland, Oregon economist Joe Cortright, identifies three economic development initiatives that each produce an identifiable "return on investment". The first and most significant is the Talent Dividend, or more simply the number of people with four year college degrees in an area. The percentage of people with four year degrees in a region is directly related to the per capita income and has long been recognized as a key indicator of a regions economic strenght, 2/3 of that strenght according to the author. Studying the 51 major metropolitan areas (population 1,000,000 or greater) in the US, Cortright found that a mere 1% increase in the number of people with degrees translates into an average per capita income increase of $760. If you apply this to the slightly smaller Springfield Metropolitan Area (Hampden, Hampshire and Franklin Counties, 2000 cenus population of 680,014) this translates into a yearly infusion of $516,000,000 into the regional economy!

A vital part of increasing the percentage of college graduates is improving our schools and setting specific graduation and college bound goals. An even greater opportunity already exists in stopping the region's brain drain. Specifically we need to keep college graduates from our outstanding colleges and universites from leaving western Massachusetts after receiving their degrees. Restoring vibrant, diverse, walkable urban cores like Holyoke's that attract recent graduates and the companies that hire them is a big step in that direction.

HOLYOKE 2020

Last Thursday evening, I attended the second public meeting for Holyoke's "City Center Vision Plan". Vanasse, Hangen and Brustlin, the city's planning consultant, had gotten off to a good start with their previous stakeholder meetings and the first public "ideas" meeting in early May. In contrast, Thursday's presentation of three alternative "Vision Plans" was not only uninspiring, it was not Holyoke. The generic urban concepts VHB presented that evening could be applied to almost any city, any size, any where. The three plans were different arrangements of newly proposed districts; arts and history, cultural, mixed use. Only nothing was new, the building types of the new districts are for the most part already allowed by current zoning. The plans showed no real relationship to Holyoke's organically growing commercial, retail and arts scene. There was no indication of how any of the plans would be paid for or be realized or if they even could be realized. When VHB pushed attendees to pick their favorite plan I felt the ghost of Holyoke's last 40 years staring at me.

So where does planning begin? In early May, Holyoker's told VHB they wanted a vibrant urban city center with restuarants, shops, movie theaters, and culture events. They wanted more jobs and more opportunities to live downtown. A plan for 200 new residents and 20 new businesess would probably support a new lunch counter, but not many restuarants. A plan for 2,000 new residents and 200 new businesess may fill a few restaurants, but will probably not support a movie theater. How many new urban residents and businesses are required for a restaurant, a book store, a movie theater, a hotel, a museum? How big do Holyoker's want their city to be? How big can it be? How big should it be?

Our City Center Vision Plan must identify a population increase goal if it is to become a realizable vision and not a fantasy. There is an untapped market for quality urban space, for walkable urban environments where people can live, work and enjoy their free time. Holyoke has over 2,000,000 square feet of vacant building space and acres of vacant urban land. I have proposed planning for 20,000 new people in the city by the year 2020, HOLYKE 2020. This number would bring Holyoke to just under it's peak population of 63,000, but far less than it's original plan.

Holyoke's is a planners dream, a tight street grid wrapped around broad canals all wrapped in turn by an elegant curve in the Connecticut River, a "fossil Venice" as John McPhee wrote in the New Yorker magazine in September of 2000. The best urban planners in the country would jump at the opportunity and give 200% to be part of Holyoke's future. Whether Holyoke's goal is 5,000 or 50,000, going from a population goal to a Vision Plan that matches Holyoke's potential and ambitions is not an easy planning assignment. Holyoke's City Center Vision Plan requires the best and most dedicated planners and latest urban planning techniques available. Holyokers should settle for nothing less.